Originally posted by Darth Thor
WTF? Another Avengers level budget? Do WB not like making Profit?
They'll make a profit if SS breaks out, just like BVS made a profit. As fans, we don't know exactly how much they make when it's all said and done (Counting merchandise, Home video sales, and actual gross). Remember, the studio doesn't actually pay for all of the marketing. For example, WB didn't pay for any of the Turkish Airline commercials that were aired during the Super Bowl.
Originally posted by Darth Thor
^ Well they should have learned from Green Lantern that spending Avengers level budget on new properties is a huge and unnecessary risk.And they should learn from Marvel, who likely make more profit from properties like Ant-Man than WB is making from BvS (not including merchandise sales).
Why tell them what to do with their money? It's not yours. lol. And it's not like WB is the only studio that overspends and not to mention it's not like they won't or have not received profit from big budget productions.
Originally posted by Zack M
Why tell them what to do with their money? It's not yours. lol. And it's not like WB is the only studio that overspends and not to mention it's not like they won't or have not received profit from big budget productions.
Urmm because they did that with Green Lantern, and as a result we've not had a single DC movie which didn't have Batman or Superman since then.
They were supposed to get on with The Flash movie right after GL, but didn't happen because of the massive loss they made on GL.
Originally posted by Darth Thor
Urmm because they did that with Green Lantern, and as a result we've not had a single DC movie which didn't have Batman or Superman since then.They were supposed to get on with The Flash movie right after GL, but didn't happen because of the massive loss they made on GL.
BVS/SS does not equal GL, so I don't know why it's important here. DC/WB is about to have it's 3rd 100 Million OW in a row. Something MCU hasn't done. I think they're doing OK.
Want to do another bet, Darth? This time it's going to be both opening weekend AND World Wide Gross.
Here is a OW SS club at the BO forums.
Suicide Squad $150+M OW Clown Car of Best. Club. Ever.
For now, I'm out, but I think SS will do at least 100 M OW. If reviews are decent, it will make around 650-700 WW. What are your numbers?
Originally posted by Zack M
BVS/SS does not equal GL, so I don't know why it's important here.
Well we're talking about Suicide Squad. If SS and WW struggle to recoup their money next year then the chances of something like a Shazam movie looks a lot less likely.
Look at Watchmen. Fantastic movie but failed to make it's huge budget back, and that also stopped other Original superhero films in the future.
Whereas movies like Deadpool and Ant-Man with their much smaller budgets encourage more Original super hero movies.
Originally posted by Zack M
DC/WB is about to have it's 3rd 100 Million OW in a row. Something MCU hasn't done. I think they're doing OK.
😬 On massively bigger budgets though. What MCU movie has had a budget of over $200mill and failed to have an OW of over $100mill?
Originally posted by Darth Thor
Well we're talking about Suicide Squad. If SS and WW struggle to recoup their money next year then the chances of something like a Shazam movie looks a lot less likely.Look at Watchmen. Fantastic movie but failed to make it's huge budget back, and that also stopped other Original superhero films in the future.
Whereas movies like Deadpool and Ant-Man with their much smaller budgets encourage more Original super hero movies.
😬 On massively bigger budgets though. What MCU movie has had a budget of over $200mill and failed to have an OW of over $100mill?
I'm not too worried on SS. It will make back it's budget and earn a profit, if my numbers are correct.
WW is the one I'm worried about. I'll need to see a trailer first.
Originally posted by Zack MFortunately? How is a movie that, by all rights should have made Avengers money, only finishing with less than $900 million WW fortunately? That is a massive disappointment for WB. And if the reports are to be believed, they needed to make $750-$800 million just to break even! So that's not much profit at all. Batman and Superman are the two most profitable comic book characters of all time, so WB thought that just throwing them up on the screen was good enough. If WB don't start taking their characters seriously, there won't ever be a DCEU movie that breaks the $1 billion mark.
That is true, but fortunately, BVS will still finish with a good WW gross. My point is that when it's all said and done, it will earn a profit.
Originally posted by Zack M
I'm not too worried on SS. It will make back it's budget and earn a profit, if my numbers are correct.WW is the one I'm worried about. I'll need to see a trailer first.
Hopefully SS kills it. As in it's a kick ass film, which does tremendously well at the box office, to encourage all the other lesser known properties.
But just so you know, the only time Marvel has ever spent $200mill or more on a movie, they've grossed well over the Billion dollar mark world wide.
Originally posted by CPT Space Bomb
Fortunately? How is a movie that, by all rights should have made Avengers money, only finishing with less than $900 million WW fortunately? That is a massive disappointment for WB. And if the reports are to be believed, they needed to make $750-$800 million just to break even! So that's not much profit at all. Batman and Superman are the two most profitable comic book characters of all time, so WB thought that just throwing them up on the screen was good enough. If WB don't start taking their characters seriously, there won't ever be a DCEU movie that breaks the $1 billion mark.
It doesn't work that way, dude. You can't just look at the gross of a movie and say, "it won't make a profit." I highly suggest you read this lengthy article.
I keep saying “in theory,” because the truth is, it depends on who’s perspective we’re using. This film wasn’t just paid for with cash straight out of Warner Bros.’ wallet, after all. It has several production companies involved, and the financing for these films gets complicated and allows major studios to go a long way toward minimizing their own exposure. Warner itself isn’t on the hook for an entire $400 million out-of-pocket investment in Batman v Superman, is the point. How much they pocket — and when — is where “Hollywood math” comes into play.
You are right about the 800 to break even, BUT:
Without being privy to the contracts and details, we can only hazard guesses at who gets how much on what date and so on. So what we’ll do for simplicity’s sake is stick with the “in theory” notion that Batman v Superman needs to make about $800+ million before we start really imagining money going into the studio bank accounts, even though that’s not entirely accurate and overstates Warner’s position regarding how much the film has to make for that studio’s position to be generally safe.Take the $800 million figure, and subtract the $350 million ridiculously-unrealistically low figure we got earlier as the conservative lousiest-of-lousy situation for the non-box office revenue streams associated with the film. You get $450 million with that math, right? That’s about how low Batman v Superman’s total worldwide box office would have to be to really be in the “danger zone” for Warner, when all is said and done.
I know, I know, this is broadly speaking and there are nuances and such, and the issue of future DCU tie-in films is the larger context, but we’re doing our best to keep numbers low and think worst-case, and for now we have to address this specific film itself and the associated risks, since it’s from those things that the worst rumors (“the DCU is in danger!”) spring. So, while different divisions account for different costs and profits, and while expectations matter and the accounting gets really tricky when it comes to claiming a loss or a profit for Hollywood studios, we are normal people having a normal conversation here, and for purposes of our guesswork and game, $450 million is a broadly generalized fair enough figure for how badly this thing would have to go to really cost WB a lot of money.
What would it take for Batman v Superman to seriously perform that badly? Let’s take a close, serious, and — most importantly — realistic look…
Man of Steel took about $198 million worldwide on its opening weekend, and then turned that into a $668 million finally tally. So that’s a final multiplier of almost 3.4x. Since we’re being as gloomy and doomy as we can to make a point about how ridiculous the fears are, let’s imagine what would happen if Batman v Superman had a final multiplier of only half that of Man of Steel, shall we? With a 1.74x multiplier, Batman v Superman would theoretically have to take only $260 million worldwide on opening weekend, to wind up with the nearly impossibly bad $450 million ultimate cume. That $260 million worldwide opening weekend would have to be despite day-and-date releases in the USA, Japan, and China — three humongous markets, notice — meaning the domestic share of that would be about $130 million in our scenario, with an equal share overseas.
This is the imaginary situation where Batman v Superman makes less than Deadpool on opening weekend, notice, and then has a patently absurdly low 1.74 final multiplier that’s half that of Man of Steel. And in this crazy scenario, these terrible factors combine for the film to reach the lowest level where it erases any profitability associated with the picture. Should it manage the same multiplier as Man of Steel, or even just close to it, notice that even these overly negative figures wind up leading to box office totals north of $700 million.
Are you starting to get a better visual now of how Warner is already smartly positioned to minimize risks and make up a lot of the investment well in advance? Are you starting to understand now that the box office performance isn’t some extreme “they bet everything they owned on a single roll of the dice” scenario that some folks mistakenly think and claim is transpiring?
The bottom line is this: Batman v Superman has tax incentives, presales, and tie-ins, as well as lucrative merchandising, that all help offset costs for Warner, and the studio is expert at reducing their risks and exposure on huge investments like this. Whatever else we can say about the future health of the DC cinematic universe — which we’ll address shortly, be patient – from a financial point of view, nobody needs to think Batman v Superman has to top $800 million to $1 billion in order for Warner to really avoid failure and make a couple of dimes on the project.
Very lengthy, I just posted a portion, but it's more complicated than just saying, BVS needs to break a billion in order to make a profit. That's not really true.
Originally posted by Zack MNever said it wouldn't make profit. I just said that it needed to make over $1 billion for it to even be considered a success for WB. They aren't making much of a profit at all at this rate; as I said the film isn't going to break the $900 million mark, and if it keeps dropping as poorly as it is it MIGHT not even cross the $800 million mark. That is a huge disappointment for WB. DC is unfortunate that such an idiotic team is in charge of their characters; WB is lucky they struck gold with Nolan; but since then, they've been riding the tails of Snyder to mediocrity.
It doesn't work that way, dude. You can't just look at the gross of a movie and say, "it won't make a profit."
It's not reached $800mill yet, so will probably not even reach $850mill at this point given the Jungle Book is out tomorrow. Personally I can't imagine anyone at WB is actually celebrating this film's success.
The box office multiplier for this has simply been terrible. Now whether that's down to the 28% RT score, or down to bad WOM from audiences is anyone's guess. Although I do know many people who haven't seen this, due to being put off by the reviews.
Originally posted by CPT Space Bomb
Never said it wouldn't make profit. I just said that it needed to make over $1 billion for it to even be considered a success for WB. They aren't making much of a profit at all at this rate; as I said the film isn't going to break the $900 million mark, and if it keeps dropping as poorly as it is it MIGHT not even cross the $800 million mark. That is a huge disappointment for WB. DC is unfortunate that such an idiotic team is in charge of their characters; WB is lucky they struck gold with Nolan; but since then, they've been riding the tails of Snyder to mediocrity.
It's a disappointment, but not a failure. No movie that does 800 plus is a failure.