So when I said it was impossible to predict, do you remember what you said?
Originally posted by The Ellimist
...or it's like saying that there's this concept called probability. Statistical polling models have historically been incredibly accurate, with PEC getting the exact electoral margin for Obama in 2012. That seems more precise than Stigma's "gut feeling" (lol).Ignoring the people like TI and Stigma who reject the validity of mathematics or something, the simple answer to the question is that Hillary is more likely to win the election than not - that's what every remotely credible model has concluded. Some models (.i.e. Sam Wang's) give far higher certainties than others (.i.e. Nate Silver's), but they all project a Clinton victory. I tend to lean towards Sam's.
Don't want to count my chickens, but...
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