Coronavirus

Originally posted by carthage
I wonder what the death toll will be for another year. Fauci said and I’m paraphrasing that it’s unrealistic to expect a vaccine in a year or if ever

The new model is 147K by/in August (doubling in about two weeks). If so, we could have over 200K as soone as November if we don't get a vaccine, which Fauci said was possible in regards to the 200k. More than a few people are saying we're going to have a second outbreak round despite the summer.

Remember, this wasn't supposed to even come close to 30K like the Flu. Then it wasn't supposed to hit 50k, then 75k.

Originally posted by carthage
I wonder what the death toll will be for another year. Fauci said and I’m paraphrasing that it’s unrealistic to expect a vaccine in a year or if ever

We do not even know if antibodies to COVID-19 confer immunity to COVID-19. It may be possible to become reinfected, which means a universal vaccine may not even be possible. We may only be able to make a seasonal or therapeutic vaccine.

Originally posted by Adam_PoE
We do not even know if antibodies to COVID-19 confer immunity to COVID-19. It may be possible to become reinfected, which means a universal vaccine may not even be possible. We may only be able to make a seasonal or therapeutic vaccine.

Correct, we don't. But it likely does or does on some level suing similar viruses as model. It's why we need to do massive antibody tests as well, to dissect the data and see what's up with this specifically.

Trump's seemingly backing away from all testing now in his rush to reopen:

"This is why the whole concept of tests aren't necessarily great. The tests are perfect but something can happen between the test where it's good and then something happens and, all of a sudden, she was tested very recently and tested negative. And then today, I guess, for some reason she tested positive," -Trump

"I will tell you, you look at some cases, some people think they're doing it for politics. Here we go again. But they think they're doing it because it will hurt me the longer it takes to -- to hurt me in the election, the longer it takes to open up." -Trump 5/08/20

"Because some of these people are being unrealistic -- they're being ridiculous. I've looked at a couple of states that are being absolutely ridiculous. But ultimately, the people are forcing it" -Trump 5/8/20

"I feel about vaccines like I feel about tests: This is going to go away without a vaccine. It’s going to go away, and we’re not going to see it again, hopefully, after a period of time." -Trump 5/8/20

Originally posted by Robtard
Reality:

-Even the Trump admin argued that we needed a vaccine for things to get back to normal, going along with the medical community consensus

-Now that Trump is pushing for states to open up as quickly as possible, he's pushing that covid-19 will just 'disappear' without a vaccine

"I feel about vaccines like I feel about tests: This is going to go away without a vaccine. It’s going to go away, and we’re not going to see it again, hopefully, after a period of time." -Trump

Yeah, if we have an annual flu vaccine and still we end up with tens of thousands of deaths each flu season, I'm unsure what type of protection reduction we are considering.

What did deaths per capita look like before we got hip with annual flu vaccines? In other words, what was the reduction? From what I read, it was 20%-35%. That's a ton of lives saved but it will never be "safe enough" to re-open America if that's the standard people are wanting.

Originally posted by Robtard
The new model is 147K by/in August (doubling in about two weeks). If so, we could have over 200K as soone as November if we don't get a vaccine, which Fauci said was possible in regards to the 200k. More than a few people are saying we're going to have a second outbreak round despite the summer.

Remember, this wasn't supposed to even come close to 30K like the Flu. Then it wasn't supposed to hit 50k, then 75k.

Is that the same IHME model that was literally wrong every single day and they stopped updating it for a very long time?

The same model I competed against and got right weeks in advance without having to adjust mine until mid-April?

I don't trust it at all.

Originally posted by Robtard
Correct, we don't. But it likely does or does on some level suing similar viruses as model. It's why we need to do massive antibody tests as well, to dissect the data and see what's up with this specifically.

Trump's seemingly backing away from all testing now in his rush to reopen:

"This is why the whole concept of tests aren't necessarily great. The tests are perfect but something can happen between the test where it's good and then something happens and, all of a sudden, she was tested very recently and tested negative. And then today, I guess, for some reason she tested positive," -Trump

"I will tell you, you look at some cases, some people think they're doing it for politics. Here we go again. But they think they're doing it because it will hurt me the longer it takes to -- to hurt me in the election, the longer it takes to open up." -Trump 5/08/20

"Because some of these people are being unrealistic -- they're being ridiculous. I've looked at a couple of states that are being absolutely ridiculous. But ultimately, the people are forcing it" -Trump 5/8/20

"I feel about vaccines like I feel about tests: [b]This is going to go away without a vaccine. It’s going to go away, and we’re not going to see it again, hopefully, after a period of time." -Trump 5/8/20 [/B]

The four coronaviruses the cause the common cold do not confer immunity, that is why we have no vaccine or cure for the common cold.

We do not know if the coronaviruses that cause SARS, MERS, or COVID-19 confer immunity, because they are still too young, and there is not enough information.

If people put all of their hopes into the possibility of a vaccine, they may end up disappointed.

Originally posted by dadudemon
Yeah, if we have an annual flu vaccine and still we end up with tens of thousands of deaths each flu season, I'm unsure what type of protection reduction we are considering.

What did deaths per capita look like before we got hip with annual flu vaccines? In other words, what was the reduction? From what I read, it was 20%-35%. That's a ton of lives saved but it will never be "safe enough" to re-open America if that's the standard people are wanting.

Flu vaccination levels are low though. If more people got the seasonal flu vaccine, the reductions would be greater.

Who here gets the flu vaccine when offered?

University Of California System Expects To Cut In-Person Classes For Fall Term

Feel bad for those students.

Originally posted by Adam_PoE
Flu vaccination levels are low though. If more people got the seasonal flu vaccine, the reductions would be greater.

I don't know what low means. But I have figures ranging from 25%-60%

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/fluvaxview/coverage-1718estimates.htm

Originally posted by Surtur
Who here gets the flu vaccine when offered?

Never have.

Originally posted by dadudemon
Yeah, if we have an annual flu vaccine and still we end up with tens of thousands of deaths each flu season, I'm unsure what type of protection reduction we are considering.

What did deaths per capita look like before we got hip with annual flu vaccines? In other words, what was the reduction? From what I read, it was 20%-35%. That's a ton of lives saved but it will never be "safe enough" to re-open America if that's the standard people are wanting.

I'm sorry, are you saying we don't need a covid-19 vaccine now?

Regardless that people still die from the flu, which is in part because not everyone gets a flu shot, it does offer protection and it does stop [some] people from dying.

Authorities discover 6-year-old Texas boy locked in shed with hands bound — he hasn't been allowed in the house since school let out in March

This is sick

Originally posted by dadudemon
Is that the same IHME model that was literally wrong every single day and they stopped updating it for a very long time?

The same model I competed against and got right weeks in advance without having to adjust mine until mid-April?

I don't trust it at all.

It is from the IHME. The White House is using it.

Sure, sure.

That's a personal choice and you're welcome to it. But we weren't supposed to have 30k deaths to begin with cos something, something Flu kills more...

Originally posted by Adam_PoE
The four coronaviruses the cause the common cold do not confer immunity, that is why we have no vaccine or cure for the common cold.

We do not know if the coronaviruses that cause SARS, MERS, or COVID-19 confer immunity, because they are still too young, and there is not enough information.

If people put all of their hopes into the possibility of a vaccine, they may end up disappointed.

Fair enough. But it's still wise to pursue a vaccine and we need massive testing as well.

Originally posted by Robtard
I'm sorry

Why are you apologizing for a dishonest question you're about to ask? That doesn't make sense to me.

Originally posted by Robtard
...are you saying we don't need a covid-19 vaccine now?

That's not in my post at all nor is it implied.

You have the entire post quoted. There's no excuse for this type of ignorance.

What's your objective with this dishonesty?

Originally posted by Robtard
Regardless that people still die from the flu, which is in part because not everyone gets a flu shot, it does offer protection and it does stop [some] people from dying.

We've known about vaccine interference for quite a while.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264410X19313647?via%3Dihub

^Indicates a 36% increase in coronavirus risk due to the Flu vaccine. HOWEVER, this study was done before the surge of SARS-CoV-2. They tested this against 4 different coronaviruses and the result showed the flu vaccinated group was 36% more likely to get ill from a coronavirus.

The dishonest take is appeal to ignorance and say that SARS-CoV-2 is so much different from other strains of the coronavirus that the results will be much different: that's not true. Since we already have a nice body of evidence, it is safer to assume it will still cause vaccine interference.

Like So:

https://childrenshealthdefense.org/wp-content/uploads/Rifkin-2018-5-ARI-after-flu-vaccine-in-children.-Vaccine-2018.pdf

In other words, vaccines are not a silver bullet. Fauci has said this himself - a combination of therapies is how you fight these things. Vaccines will not be the end all be all.

Which was my original point: if they are not good enough to combat our seasonal flu, we will reduce COVID-19 deaths by likely similar percentages. Percentages that will never be enough to ever justify re-opening if the justification for keeping the world locked down is what it is.

It will never be realistic.

As I've posted before, coronavirus is documented to mutate more slowly than flu viruses. That's good news.

Originally posted by Robtard
Fair enough. But it's still wise to pursue a vaccine and we need massive testing as well.

But if you've been following the narrative, testing is meaningless since presence of antibodies means nothing.

Remember?

We just supposed to stay locked up and avoid human contact. Because by the time a vaccine is ready for the masses, which is supposed to be the end all be all for stopping SARS-CoV-2, it will have mutated and we will need another vaccine. Repeating the cycle.

And presence of antibodies but no presence of SARS-CoV-2 does not mean that the person is now immune from SARS-CoV-2, right? That's the current narrative.

The current narrative: we will never be safe and we always have to be scared and act scared the rest of our lives. We can never again go back to our old lives.

Originally posted by Robtard
It is from the IHME. The White House is using it.

Sure, sure.

I figured as much. Shit models. 🙂

Originally posted by Robtard
That's a personal choice and you're welcome to it. But we weren't supposed to have 30k deaths to begin with cos something, something Flu kills more...

Thankfully, it is not a personal choice. It is a facts issue. A facts issue that other epidemiologists have pointed out and criticized.

You're welcome to join me with the science and facts people over here instead of blindly believing IHME's proven-wrong models. Don't worry: anyone willing to be objective is welcome.

Originally posted by dadudemon
But if you've been following the narrative, testing is meaningless since presence of antibodies means nothing.

Remember?

We just supposed to stay locked up and avoid human contact. Because by the time a vaccine is ready for the masses, which is supposed to be the end all be all for stopping SARS-CoV-2, it will have mutated and we will need another vaccine. Repeating the cycle.

And presence of antibodies but no presence of SARS-CoV-2 does not mean that the person is now immune from SARS-CoV-2, right? That's the current narrative.

The current narrative: we will never be safe and we always have to be scared and act scared the rest of our lives. We can never again go back to our old lives.

Hell speaking of testing, people are always comparing our numbers to other countries...and then when Trump touts our testing numbers a reporter is all "why do you keep comparing them?" which lead to the whole "ask China" thing.

So damned if he does and damned if he doesn't. No wonder the guy is frustrated.

Originally posted by dadudemon
Why are you apologizing for a dishonest question you're about to ask? That doesn't make sense to me.

That's not in my post at all nor is it implied.

You have the entire post quoted. There's no excuse for this type of ignorance.

What's your objective with this dishonesty?

That's a long and highly defensive way to dodge a simple question.

You said:

"Yeah, if we have an annual flu vaccine and still we end up with tens of thousands of deaths each flu season, I'm unsure what type of protection reduction we are considering.

What did deaths per capita look like before we got hip with annual flu vaccines? In other words, what was the reduction? From what I read, it was 20%-35%. That's a ton of lives saved but it will never be "safe enough" to re-open America if that's the standard people are wanting." -DDM

I'm asking your opinion on whether or not you specifically believe we need a vaccine for covid-19. Not what other people believe.