Coronavirus

Originally posted by Robtard
Here you go, you chastising the 147K deaths by August model:

Robtard...you wouldn't be trying to be dishonest, wouldja?

Here's the full context with emphasis:

Originally posted by Robtard
The new model is 147K by/in August (doubling in about two weeks). If so, we could have over 200K as soone as November if we don't get a vaccine, which Fauci said was possible in regards to the 200k. More than a few people are saying we're going to have a second outbreak round despite the summer.

Remember, this wasn't supposed to even come close to 30K like the Flu. Then it wasn't supposed to hit 50k, then 75k.

Originally posted by dadudemon
Is that the same IHME model that was literally wrong every single day and they stopped updating it for a very long time?

The same model I competed against and got right weeks in advance without having to adjust mine until mid-April?

I don't trust it at all.

Real world result which clearly didn't show a doubling in 2 weeks:

And you want my daily death numbers from my model?

🙂

It wasn't that the deaths would double in a two week period, it's the predicted deaths by August back in May; you know this, so you're playing games.

But that's twice now you've dodged the request to show your quote of your claimed August prediction. Whirly was correct:

Originally posted by Old Man Whirly!
I'm not saying DDM is definately gaslighting, but, DDM is most likely gaslighting... as usual.

Originally posted by Robtard
It wasn't that the deaths would double in a two week period, it's the predicted deaths by August back in May; you know this, so you're playing games.

Then your explanation doens't make sense. Doubling in two weeks does not fit the context you're trying to explain. The time period from May 13th to August is not 2 weeks. But you're trying to state that the 2 weeks didn't mean doubling when it's literally word for word in your post.

Originally posted by Robtard
But that's twice now you've dodged the request to show your quote of your claimed August prediction. Whirly was correct:

Oh, there's definitely no quote on KMC for the model I've kept - I've only ever referenced it. Why would there be a quote? Artol asked for me to share it, as well. Never once did I state that I made a post to KMC. That's you inventing a claim I never made. But I have referenced the model I've kept probably a dozen times, by now. The only thing you know is I majorly messed up the R0 value towards the beginning of May and had to adjust my model. That's all you know.

If I feel like it, I will convert it to a Google sheet and share it with you in December. 🙂

But nice attempt to make this about a quote war when I asked for your quote. I think you knew I would call you out on the 2 week thing because you done did f*ck up even back then. 🙂

Were there some predictions you shared on KMC we could go back to to see the veracity of the model?

https://www.cnn.ph/world/2020/8/11/Coronavirus-cases-global-tally.html

Total cases have reached 20 million (excluding the unreported cases from China). I'm sure millions have already died in China, but they're not reporting it.

Originally posted by Artol
Were there some predictions you shared on KMC we could go back to to see the veracity of the model?

Yes.

Originally posted by dadudemon
New York has tested 138K people as of today.

[b]Mortality Rate: 0.4% (this is the actual mortality rate and it is still too high because it is still oversampling people who are presenting with symptoms or people who had primary exposure (exposed to someone who was confirmed with COVID-19). This number is within my model with a Mortality rate of .3%-.6%. However, I was corrected by another statistician and the rate is likely less than .1%. I am probably wrong if we go by Iceland's numbers.

Case Fatality Rate: 1.3% <-The number being dishonestly represented in the media as the mortality rate.

https://twitter.com/NYGovCuomo/status/1243561528466399233 [/B]

Here's where I acknowledge my model might be wrong but I was wrong about how it was wrong: the R0 was higher AND it just kept spreading and spreading and didn't die down.

Originally posted by dadudemon
Trump states we have tested 1,000,000 Americans, today, in his daily press briefing:

https://www.katc.com/news/coronavirus/coronavirus-task-force-holds-monday-news-conference

One million.

Guess what mortality rate that puts the US as?

.3%.

Looks like I'm wrong but in a good way. Looks like the fatality rate is lower than .3% and my model was off. I think my RO is still too low, too. Just went with the wrong outcome.

Here's where I make a direct reference on the original data set I created my model after (the cruise ship data). Note, my R0 was still wrong at this point:

Originally posted by dadudemon
When I did the model based on the cruise ship data, I used an aggressive RO (part of why it looks like my mortality rate results are too high). But it's not that much lower and COVID-19 spreads quickly, like the rhinovirus but not as severe as rhinovirus (cold).

Part of my point has been the lockdown stuff was too late to the game and we needed to have done that at the end of Feb.

I've been tracking this data, daily, for about 2 weeks, now. CFR is close to 2%.

Here's where I entertain the notion that the R0 is not 1.5-1.8, that it could be much greater. It's when I started to realize my model was going to start being wrong. That was April 3rd and my model was still right and IHME's was much worse than my model.

Originally posted by dadudemon
Wow, this is crazy. This makes it even worse than I thought but far less deadly than my model. I am definitely more than happy to admit a mortality rate of .1% or less because that's good news for the entire world.

But that puts the R0 beyond even the worst rhinovirus cases of an R0 at 5+

Finally, here's the juicy stuff where I get into some my model's details. I become quite confident because I'm on a "correct" streak, being right day after day on the deaths. Their model was way way off and we never hit 2600 daily deaths. But my model was off, as well. And my predictions fell off because the R0 value was actually 2.5-2.8. However, I was still closer to being right. lol

Originally posted by dadudemon
Here is a great site about projections:

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

Running my numbers against theirs will be great.

They are projecting 2600+ deaths on April 16th and April 16th is supposed to be the apex.

They also predict that by May 1st, we will have 68,000 total deaths.

My predictions are:

1. We will hover are around 1,100 daily deaths for several days and slowly drop with an average margin of +-300.

2. By May 1st, we will have 20,000 to 25,000 deaths. That's because my model predicts daily death rates from .85 to 1.1 and theirs is much more aggressive. I also suggested we hit near population saturation before the lockdowns got crazy 2-3 weeks ago. If the lockdowns were effective, we would have seen significant drops in the last 6 days, now, but we haven't.

Let's see who's right. Obviously, all of us would hope in me being correct because that means we hit way more less dead. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong, however.

Feel free to mess around with a free online tool (but mine is my own in Excel):

https://gabgoh.github.io/COVID/index.html

Next, a few days later, my model is still on track to be accurate and theirs is wrong:

Originally posted by dadudemon
Update:
Today's deaths are 1,255. My #1 prediction still holds true. NY shows signs of flattening. Daily new cases is also still less than 2 days ago.

Hope these predictions still hold true.

Also, that site also halved their number of beds needed, which is interesting. They could have done that days ago but maintained their overly inflated numbers. Why?

Here's where my model fails and the data no longer matches it:

Originally posted by dadudemon
Nice. I didn't adjust mine. But mine would probably reflect a similar spike on the date they have.

Huge spike yesterday and my model was off.

The spike was so large that there has to be something about it somewhere in the data. What happened 14-21 days ago? The mass quarantines and lockdowns which "inspired" people to freak out and go shopping. Which caused the exposure of people who may not have been exposed. Which caused a spike in deaths. If we are supposedly near or at saturation, then those that were not exposed yet, for whatever reason, are vulnerable.

Finally, after adjusting my model, it was still wrong by April 15th and I complain about not being able to figure out where I went wrong but mine was still more accurate the IHME:

Originally posted by dadudemon
Yesterday, record deaths. Massive spike.

But why? I cannot explain this data. Social distancing, lockdowns, and shelter in place policies. So why the spike?

Here are my original predictions and IHME's:

IHME was still way way off at the time and my predictions were still closer to accurate than theirs. Readjusting my model may have been a bad idea because it turned out to be "accurate" again but the spikes are just hard to explain and represent.

So there's the journey where I was right for weeks. Then a little bit wrong. Then consistently wrong as the decline I predicted never happened until I adjust a longer exposure period and then increased the R0.

Also, I stopped keeping that model up to date because I cannot account for the second wave. My final figures for 2020 were 188k deaths because I predicted a slight uptick in November and December as the flu and cold season starts again. But I later found out that the coroanvirus season doesn't get in full swing until March so that model is wrong even thought my total deaths for 2020 may still be accurate.

Originally posted by Robtard
Here you go, you chastising the 147K deaths by August model:

Now where's your quote supporting the claim you made last page?

42% of all COVID-19 deaths came from 5 states where Democrat Governors ordered 6,000 elderly patients be put into nursing homes (care homes) which ended up killing tens of thousands of people.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/theapothecary/2020/05/26/nursing-homes-assisted-living-facilities-0-6-of-the-u-s-population-43-of-u-s-covid-19-deaths/

Originally posted by dadudemon
42% of all COVID-19 deaths came from 5 states where Democrat Governors ordered 6,000 elderly patients be put into nursing homes (care homes) which ended up killing tens of thousands of people.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/theapothecary/2020/05/26/nursing-homes-assisted-living-facilities-0-6-of-the-u-s-population-43-of-u-s-covid-19-deaths/

I would imagine there is a rather large undercount because the minute the patients left the nursing homes (ie ambulance) they no longer counted twards deaths from elderly care centers.

And 42% could be an undercount. States like New York exclude from their nursing home death tallies those who die in a hospital, even if they were originally infected in a long-term care facility. Outside of New York, more than half of all deaths from COVID-19 are of residents in long-term care facilities

Coumo did a conference awhile back where he just matter of factly stated he expected lives to be lost, to bad he didn't follow up with saying that most of the lives lost were due to his leadership. Guess it's time for him to get back on the phone and talk to billionaires all day and promise to cook them dinner 😆

Originally posted by snowdragon
I would imagine there is a rather large undercount because the minute the patients left the nursing homes (ie ambulance) they no longer counted twards deaths from elderly care centers.

Coumo did a conference awhile back where he just matter of factly stated he expected lives to be lost, to bad he didn't follow up with saying that most of the lives lost were due to his leadership. Guess it's time for him to get back on the phone and talk to billionaires all day and promise to cook them dinner 😆

I didn't know this so it's worse than I thought...

There should be a ton of angry Americans about this. Wish the news would cover this. Same thing happened in the UK. Both the US and the UK majorly f*cked up with our elderly.

Originally posted by dadudemon
42% of all COVID-19 deaths came from 5 states where Democrat Governors ordered 6,000 elderly patients be put into nursing homes (care homes) which ended up killing tens of thousands of people.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/theapothecary/2020/05/26/nursing-homes-assisted-living-facilities-0-6-of-the-u-s-population-43-of-u-s-covid-19-deaths/

That isn't what the article says. But you knew that.

So De Blasio did this thing where he put homeless people, sex offenders, the mentally ill up in luxury hotels.

He has indicated he will ask the expenses to be paid for by emergency funds from the federal government(some funds have already been granted, he said he will ask for more)

Who here things he should be told to f*ck right off and keep f*cking right off and then to f*ck right off some more? I do.

New York has much higher nursing home death count than officials admit — and Cuomo still refuses investigation

Ouch

the new Trumper Covid Tsar is I suspect going to **** up Royally.

Originally posted by Old Man Whirly!
the new Trumper Covid Tsar is I suspect going to **** up Royally.

Well as long as he does better then Coumo and De'Blasio we'll be moving in a positive direction at least. 😉

Red States Deaths: 53,209
Blue States Deaths: 109,750

Numbers from worldometer.com

Originally posted by BrolyBlack
Red States Deaths: 53,209
Blue States Deaths: 109,750

Numbers from worldometer.com

Originally posted by BrolyBlack
Red States Deaths: 53,209
Blue States Deaths: 109,750

Numbers from worldometer.com

Good point .And what's important to note is there are more people in the red states.

Since the governors and local leadership are the ones to set all the functional policies such as lockdowns, business closures, mask mandates, mobility restrictions, care home housing policies, and almost all resources (medical personnel allocation, medical equipment, etc.), you can be quite sure which policies were effective at saving lives and which were not.

The US still leaves quite a bit of the decision making up to the states which is called the "Reserved Powers." The US Government has the option to do things such as restrict international arrivals which it did very early, back in Jan.

If you control for the 42,000 nursing home/care home deaths from just 4 blue states, you can make up the death the difference between the red states and blue states almost entirely.

We know which specific policy killed the people.

Still, the US did much better than the UK, Belgium, Spain, and Italy. Brazil and Mexico are quickly catching up and will soon surpass the US. The US dropped from #6 worst to #7 worse, recently. Despite our daily deaths just now starting to subside in our second wave.

Summary: the blue states didn't really do worse than the red states. Just 4 blue states account for almost all the difference and that was the care home/nursing home policies that killed 42,000 elderly.

We're at 165-166k deaths today in the US. It's looking like we'll hit the 175K marker by the end of next week.