Originally posted by Robtard
Two days in a row the US has nearly hit the 1,500 deaths per day mark.
That's not true.
2 days ago was 1,504.
Yesterday was 1,386
Today is 1,284.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
We are a day or 2 past the "21 days later" mark when we hit the apex of cases.
That's the case to death cycle I spoke about, before.
Tomorrow, you'll see 900-1,100 deaths. Let's at least hope it's closer to 900 because that means fewer dead people.
But it should gradually work it's way down over the next 2 weeks, as I stated before.
Originally posted by dadudemonDoubt it. I think it's just maintain the 1,200 level.
That's not true.2 days ago was 1,504.
Yesterday was 1,386
Today is 1,284.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
We are a day or 2 past the "21 days later" mark when we hit the apex of cases.
That's the case to death cycle I spoke about, before.
Tomorrow, you'll see 900-1,100 deaths. Let's at least hope it's closer to 900 because that means fewer dead people.
But it should gradually work it's way down over the next 2 weeks, as I stated before.
For months DDM has been banging on about herd immunity. Other people who don't really have a clue have been agreeing. He even cited Sweden's model and plan as good.
The Whirly one pointed out the flaws in the herd immunity theory for Covid-19 many times subsequently in this thread.
https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200813/swedens-no-lockdown-policy-didnt-achieve-herd-immunity
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-08-covid-herd-immunity-sweden-materialize.html
Whirly's point, DDM and Sweden are not stupid, but caution is sometimes better when dealing with Unknowns.
DDM may well have been gaslighting with some of his ideas, who knows?
For anyone curious about the actual science around SARS-CoV-2 and herd immunity:
HIT is calculated like this: HIT = (R0-1/ R0) , where R0 is equal to the average number of people who will contract the disease from someone who is already infected. When R0 reaches 1, the outbreak stops growing. When it drops below 1, the outbreak begins to burn out.Using the HIT formula, and a CDC estimate of 2.5 for R0, we find that:
2.5 – 1 / 2.5 = .6
or
60% of the populationeither needs to be effectively vaccinated or needs to contract the virus and recover with effective immune protection, in order for the R0 value to fall below 1 and cause the virus to burn itself out for lack of available hosts. 60% is a very big number, but keep reading to learn why researchers believe the true HIT is likely much lower in the case of COVID-19.
Estimated Global Infection Fatality Rate for COVID-19
One of the key factors in determining HIT is the Infection Fatality Rate, or IFR. IFR = Number of Total Deaths / Number of Total Infections. We’ve known from very early on in the pandemic that the number of COVID-19 infections is much higher than is being reported due to asymptomatic not making it to the case totals.A recent meta-analysis of 50 international sero-prevalence studies by Stanford researcher Dr. John Ioaniddis has shown that the median infection fatality rate, or IFR, of COVID-19 is .27%. Sero-prevalence studies attempt to estimate what percentage of a population has had COVID-19 in the past, using current COVID-19 antibody testing capabilities. IFR is then calculated using the estimated prevalence (how many people have been infected) of COVID-19 in a certain area.
For example, according to the CDC’s interactive serology dashboard, the latest sero-prevalence data implies a 23.2% infection rate in New York City. New York City has a population of 8.4 million people. Using these two numbers, we can estimate that 23.2% * 8.4 million population = 1,948,800 infections have occurred in NYC thus far. We know that there have been 23,000 deaths in New York City, so if we divide 23,000 deaths / 1,948,800 infections, we come to an IFR of 1.2%, meaning that 1.2% of people in NYC who become infected by COVID-19 will die of the disease.
Why does IFR matter in terms of herd immunity? Well, if the true IFR is .27%, and we accept the traditional thinking that 60% of the population needs to be exposed to the virus or vaccinated, if we choose to not vaccinate 199 million people, 536,000 in the U.S. will die from COVID-19. A truly terrible outcome if we don’t vaccinate.
However, recent studies are showing that the HIT may actually be as low as 10-20% instead of 60-70%. This is because a huge drawback to using HIT on its own is that HIT has to assume that everyone in a population is equally susceptible to a disease and equally likely to be exposed to the disease. This drawback makes sense but it’s hard to quantify. A collaboration of researchers from around the globe attempted to understand what the true HIT is for COVID-19 and came up with this graphic:
Herd immunity threshold with variation in susceptibility and exposure to infection. Vertical lines indicate coefficients of individual variation for several infectious diseases according to literature: (green) susceptibility or exposure to malaria [Amazon 1.8 (4), Africa 2.4 (5)]; (blue) susceptibility or exposure to tuberculosis [Portugal 2.4, Brazil 3.3 (6)]; (orange) infectiousness for SARS-CoV-1 [Singapore 2.62, Beijing 2.64 (7)]; (dotted black) infectiousness for SARS-CoV-2 [3.2 (8)].
As explained in the caption, the vertical lines represent the different levels of variability in susceptibility and exposure for various diseases. The vertical black dotted line is the best estimate for COVID-19. We can see that because of the higher variability for COVID-19, the HIT lands somewhere between 10-20%. This is great news because it means that not only is it possible that we won’t need mass vaccinations, but we may already be very close to herd immunity in key areas of the U.S.But wait a second. An HIT of 10-20% is way lower than the mainstream estimate of 60-70%. Why is the number so much lower? A recent study out of Germany shows that as many as 80% of people who come into contact with COVID-19 already have some level of T-cell immunity based on the human body’s built-up immunity to the common cold, which itself is also a type of coronavirus. So COVID-19 isn’t an example of a disease which is affecting a completely defenseless population. Quite the contrary. Most of us already have a level of resistance to the virus. These kinds of findings are significantly driving down HIT estimates.
Putting the Pieces Together
If the IFR of COVID-19 is somewhere around .27%, and the HIT is in the 10-20% range, is it possible that we’ve already reached herd immunity in several areas of the country?Let’s take a look at an example of New York, which was clobbered in the beginning of the crisis, but has been spared from the recent surge which has plagued southern and western states.
As we can see, at the peak of the daily death totals, 6% of New Yorkers are estimated to have contracted the virus. On May 17, 16% of New Yorkers had the virus. As of today 19% of New Yorkers are estimated to have contracted the virus, and COVID-19 appears to have almost completely disappeared from the state.
This same pattern is happening in other hard-hit areas of the world and is beginning to appear in other states in the U.S.
So what does this tell us about COVID-19? The main takeaway is that hiding from the virus, locking down, and imposing misguided mask policies appear to just be delaying herd immunity. We’re going to have to face this problem eventually. We’re constantly hearing promises of vaccines, but despite the positive news articles, the actual experts are still estimating that a vaccine isn’t going to realistically be available until 2022, if at all. There are absolutely no guarantees on that front.
On the other hand, if the HIT of COVID-19 is between 10-20%, as the data seems to be confirming all around the world, why shouldn’t we be encouraged by the possibility of this all ending sooner than we thought–and without mass vaccinations!
Be encouraged, friends. There’s light at the end of the tunnel. Continue to protect the vulnerable in your life and let herd immunity run its course. Then go out and live your life.
https://coronavirusbellcurve.com/estimating-the-herd-immunity-threshold-hit-for-each-state/
DDM doubling down. Herd Immunity didn't appear in Sweden and hasn't appeared anywhere.
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-08-covid-herd-immunity-sweden-materialize.html
Originally posted by Blakemore
What are the stakes?I just went outside. Only I wore a mask. Looked dumb tbh.
If you lose, post a photo of you in a MAGA hat.
If I lose, I'll post a photo of me wearing a Biden or MAGA shirt. Or hat.
Means we'd have to purchase something from Amazon to fulfill the bet.
What else can we do that functions as a cheap bet but still has power to it? You might get into trouble for wearing pro-Trump stuff.
In the real world, with bets like these, the loser pays for lunch. You live across the pond so it's not possible.
Government quietly drops 1.3m Covid tests from England tally
As Countries want figures to fall when they aren't actually, expect more of this.
And for anyone else interested in the science of SARS-CoV-2 and immunity:
The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic calls for the rapid development of diagnostic, preventive, and therapeutic approaches. CD4+ and CD8+ T cell-mediated immunity is central for control of and protection from viral infections[1-3]. A prerequisite to characterize T-cell immunity, but also for the development of vaccines and immunotherapies, is the identification of the exact viral T-cell epitopes presented on human leukocyte antigens (HLA)[2-8]. This is the first work identifying and characterizing SARS-CoV-2-specific and cross-reactive HLA class I and HLA-DR T-cell epitopes in SARS-CoV-2 convalescents (n = 180) as well as unexposed individuals (n = 185) and confirming their relevance for immunity and COVID-19 disease course. SARS-CoV-2-specific T-cell epitopes enabled detection of post-infectious T-cell immunity, even in seronegative convalescents. Cross-reactive SARS-CoV-2 T-cell epitopes revealed preexisting T-cell responses in 81% of unexposed individuals, and validation of similarity to common cold human coronaviruses provided a functional basis for postulated heterologous immunity[9] in SARS-CoV-2 infection[10,11]. Intensity of T-cell responses and recognition rate of T-cell epitopes was significantly higher in the convalescent donors compared to unexposed individuals, suggesting that not only expansion, but also diversity spread of SARS-CoV-2 T-cell responses occur upon active infection. Whereas anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody levels were associated with severity of symptoms in our SARS-CoV-2 donors, intensity of T-cell responses did not negatively affect COVID-19 severity. Rather, diversity of SARS-CoV-2 T-cell responses was increased in case of mild symptoms of COVID-19, providing evidence that development of immunity requires recognition of multiple SARS-CoV-2 epitopes. Together, the specific and cross-reactive SARS-CoV-2 T-cell epitopes identified in this work enable the identification of heterologous and post-infectious T-cell immunity and facilitate the development of diagnostic, preventive, and therapeutic measures for COVID-19.
https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-35331/v1
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3
What this means is simply being exposed to the virus has shown T-cell response in 81% of unexposed individuals meaning 81% of that sample population, from that study, already had pre-existing immunity from SARS-CoV-2. This is closely matching herd immunity observations in serology studies that show places like NYC and Sweden, where seroprevelance is between 15%-20%, shows little new infections and resultant deaths.
Even if the IgG antigens show a drop in seroprevelance only 2-3 months after exposure, based on the above German study, immunity comes from multiple factors and previous coronaviruses and herd immunity threshold is far lower than previously thought at around 15%-20%. Since real world observations are matching this result, we can only stick with the science and not with biases and ill-conceived notions of immunization-vectors. This also calls into question the utility and validity of vaccinations for this: we will have long reached heard immunity before vaccines are logistically feasible.
I'll keep us updated as this science develops but the book is pretty much closed on the heard immunity debate within the scientific community because we now have real world results to confirm the heard immunity research.
Originally posted by dadudemonCan't I just make one?
If you lose, post a photo of you in a MAGA hat.If I lose, I'll post a photo of me wearing a Biden or MAGA shirt. Or hat.
Means we'd have to purchase something from Amazon to fulfill the bet.
What else can we do that functions as a cheap bet but still has power to it? You might get into trouble for wearing pro-Trump stuff.
In the real world, with bets like these, the loser pays for lunch. You live across the pond so it's not possible.
Without A Vaccine, Researchers Say, Herd Immunity May Never Be Achieved
July 24, 20205:00 AM ET
Originally posted by Blakemore
1,149 deaths in USA so far today.Edit that was yday
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Yesterday was 1284.
Today, so far, we are at 613. They "reset the days" at +7 GMT which is a bit more than 4 hours from now.
Originally posted by dadudemonThat'snearly half.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/Yesterday was 1284.
Today, so far, we are at 613. They "reset the days" at +7 GMT which is a bit more than 4 hours from now.