What if Aliens exist?

Originally posted by inimalist
dadudemon - I fail to see how different your equation would be from the Drake equation, especially in a way that makes it less subject to the Fermi paradox...

Mandalore - I've already gone over the stats twice in this thread. If you want, we can get into it. Synopsis: We don't know the probability of life. Very well, there may be billions of systems, but what if the odds of life occurring are one in one trillion? You are also ignoring our temporal isolation. Possibly other alien species have existed or will after humans are gone, there is no specific reason why the period of time we live in must also produce other life forms.

So, how many of your dead relatives are setting up shop on other planets?

Originally posted by Devil King
So, how many of your dead relatives are setting up shop on other planets?

I wouldn't know, they don't write anymore, too busy un-living it up on perseii 9

Originally posted by inimalist
Mandalore - I've already gone over the stats twice in this thread. If you want, we can get into it. Synopsis: We don't know the probability of life. Very well, there may be billions of systems, but what if the odds of life occurring are one in one trillion?

Now, that would be highly unlikely. Very good point, though.

You are also ignoring our temporal isolation. Possibly other alien species have existed or will after humans are gone, there is no specific reason why the period of time we live in must also produce other life forms.

There is no specific reason as to why it would not produce other life forms.

As for the isolation comment, I'm not saying the extra-terrestial life form is technologically advanced. They could very well be simple animals or bacteria, so logically, they might not even know of our existance. Also, I'm not saying that the extra-terrestial life form inhabits our system or even our galaxy. So even if it is a technologically advanced alien race, similar to us, for example, it could very well live on a planet outside our galaxy, and therefore, it would be difficult, to say the least, for them to discover there is life on planet Earth.

Originally posted by 0°Mandalore°0
Now, that would be highly unlikely.

There is no specific reason as to why it would not produce other life forms.

In the first place, I'm not saying the extra-terrestial life form is technologically advanced. They could very well be simple animals or bacteria, so logically, they might not even know of our existance. Also, I'm not saying that the extra-terrestial life form inhabits our system or even our galaxy. So even if it is a technologically advanced alien race, it could very well live on a planet outside our galaxy, and therefore, it would be difficult, to say the least, for them to discover there is life in our planet.

so, lets not talk about odds then, lets just talk variables

you would honestly be willing to say you even know which events in the history of the earth were the pivotal ones in determining it's suitability for what we would deem as life? Thats ridiculous, of course you don't, nobody does. You have absolutely no grounds to say that the odds of life existing are less than the number of planets that exist. There is no other planet in the universe that has undergone the exact same events that Earth has (re: all planets have a unique history). Therefore it is entirely possible that it required the specific unique random set of events that occurred here.

And to even say bacteria, to describe what life could possibly be on other planets in terms of earth life is going to get us nowhere. They certainly wont have DNA, they wont have cells, it will be entirely new molecular structures, stuff we probably are incapable of imagining.

Originally posted by inimalist
dadudemon - I fail to see how different your equation would be from the Drake equation, especially in a way that makes it less subject to the Fermi paradox...

Actually, the Drake equation was a jumping point. I created my own version, really. Remind me in a month or two and I will rework what I did.

Edit- There are flaws in the Drake equation and variables that should not be used. More tangible variables should be used. I can break that down later.

Originally posted by dadudemon
Actually, the Drake equation was a jumping point. I created my own version, really. Remind me in a month or two and I will rework what I did.

no worries, I was more interested in how you got around the Fermi paradox

ie: If there are at least 2000 intelligent species in our galaxy, why can't we see them, where are they?

Originally posted by inimalist
no worries, I was more interested in how you got around the Fermi paradox

ie: If there are at least 2000 intelligent species in our galaxy, why can't we see them, where are they?

I edited my post. That might help with your answer.

Also, its possible that relativistic speeds are unattainable. Who's to say that an advanced social species would use methods of communication that we would recognize? What if they are searching for life in a way that we don't think about? What if we are totally retarded in thinking that other species have to be social?

There are so many questions that need to be answered.

My math had more to do with how many planets exist in our galaxy that are just like our own. (and therefore, could support life just like our own.

I actually agree with pretty much everything you have said. Anything dealing with "astrobiology" is so speculative at this point it might as well be science fiction.

I've got to say, the more I think about it, the less confident I get about life out there, especially any type of life that would be worth finding (outside of the fact that we would have found life I mean).

Originally posted by inimalist
You have absolutely no grounds to say that the odds of life existing are less than the number of planets that exist.

Of course I don't. In my opinion, it would be highly unlikely that what you say is truth. I'm not saying the odds are less or are more.

There is no other planet in the universe that has undergone the exact same events that Earth has (re: all planets have a unique history). Therefore it is entirely possible that it required the specific unique random set of events that occurred here.]

I'm not exactly sure as to what you're trying to tell me here... Probably the fault of my limited 15 year-old mind. 😛 However, I'll reply to your post assuming you meant what I think you meant: We cannot know if the other planets actually need to undergo the exact same events that Earth has in order to have life in it. I'd say they do not necessarly have to.

Originally posted by 0°Mandalore°0
Of course I don't. In my opinion, it would be highly unlikely that what you say is truth. I'm not saying the odds are less or are more.

I'm not exactly sure as to what you're trying to tell me here... Probably the fault of my limited 15 year-old mind. 😛 However, I'll reply to your post assuming you meant what I think you meant: We cannot know if the other planets actually need to undergo the exact same events that Earth has in order to have life in it. I'd say they do not necessarly have to.

yes, and in making that concession you have in fact increased uncertainty, not decreased it.

If we can't even know what is required for life, we can not accurately speculate about life, or even the possibility of its existence.

There are people doing work in "astrobiology" and there are some interesting results. The idea that life will be carbon or something similar based simply because it is the most stable, or that some type of molecular replication will need to occur to begin an evolutionary process. So, we could possibly start to talk about deposits of carbon or similar molecules on planets that might or might not exist, or how likely the process of molecular replication is to lead to life, but again, this is guess work.

Originally posted by inimalist
I actually agree with pretty much everything you have said. Anything dealing with "astrobiology" is so speculative at this point it might as well be science fiction.

Right. Even as a young lad, I saw problems with Drake's equation. That means that much greater minds than mine saw that and then some.

Originally posted by inimalist
I've got to say, the more I think about it, the less confident I get about life out there, especially any type of life that would be worth finding (outside of the fact that we would have found life I mean).

That is pessimism. Your screen name IS inimalist...a play on the word and meaning of "minimalist"...it would be logical to assume that you would inevitably exude a pessimistic perspective on at least one occasion. Elementary, my dear Watson, elementary. 😆

(in other words, you are allowed to thing negative thoughts.)

Originally posted by inimalist
yes, and in making that concession you have in fact increased uncertainty, not decreased it.

I was not trying to decrease anything. Your opinion is your own, I'm not trying to change it, I'm merely pointing out my points of view concerning the subject.

If we can't even know what is required for life

What do you mean we don't know? We know that without oxygen, without water, without light, life wouldn't exist on Earth. We might not know what resources does the extra-terrestrial life form require to live, it could be virtually anything. But we do know that in order to live they need a resource... or not. Unless I'm misunderstanding the meaning of your reply.

Originally posted by dadudemon
(in other words, you are allowed to thing negative thoughts.)

I'll remember to let my shrink know that 😉

Who was that directed to?

Originally posted by 0°Mandalore°0
I was not trying to decrease anything. Your opinion is your own, I'm not trying to change it, merely point out my points of view concerning the subject.

What do you mean we don't know? We know that without oxygen, without water, without light, life wouldn't exist on Earth. We might not know what resources does the extra-terrestrial life form require to live, it could be virtually anything. But we do know that in order to live they need a resource... or not. Unless I'm misunderstanding the meaning of your reply.

ok, yes, that is fine, I'm not going to try and change your opinion, and I'd appreciate it if you didn't assume mine.

My point is you can't know. And making statements of the "arrogance" of people who don't think that the universe is set up to produce countless similar beings to oneself surely doesn't further this victimized stance you have taken up.

Like you, I am merely pointing out my point of view on the subject

Originally posted by inimalist
ok, yes, that is fine, I'm not going to try and change your opinion, and I'd appreciate it if you didn't assume mine.

My point is you can't know. And making statements of the "arrogance" of people who don't think that the universe is set up to produce countless similar beings to oneself surely doesn't further this victimized stance you have taken up.

Like you, I am merely pointing out my point of view on the subject

I understand what you're saying. I apologize about the "arrogance" post before. I didn't really mean it. It just a stupid attempt on making my point of view as clear as it gets.
However, you did counter with the "ignorance" reply. 😛

Originally posted by 0°Mandalore°0
I understand what you're saying. I apologize about the "arrogance" post before. I didn't really mean it. It just a stupid attempt on making my point of view as clear as it gets.
However, you did counter with the "ignorance" reply. 😛

belief without fact....

well, maybe that is splitting hairs

What do you mean?

Originally posted by inimalist
I'll remember to let my shrink know that 😉

That was not the angle I was intending. I was referring to your screen name "granting" you the excuse to post pessimistic point of views.

In the same vein as your above thoughts, a nice logical balance of pessimism and optimism is healthy, imo. I believe they call that realism. hmm

Originally posted by inimalist
no worries, I was more interested in how you got around the Fermi paradox

ie: If there are at least 2000 intelligent species in our galaxy, why can't we see them, where are they?

From what I can remember it does not factor in that aliens could already be among us.