Illadelph's Tournament Odds Thread

Started by DigiMark00715 pages

No, since we're going by judge votes to determine playoff spots, not win/loss. As such, my percentage is currently higher. Like baseball, where a 91-0 team would be ahead of a 92-1 team. So it's actually the bracketed numbers that count in the standings rundown. Head-to-head matchups count as tiebreaks.

Originally posted by DigiMark007
Bump

1. Digi ---- 3-0 (9-0) [1.000]
2. Charlotte ---- 4-0 (11-1) [.917]
3. B-Dub/Smurph ---- 2-1 (6-3) [.667]
4. Kandy/id369 ---- 1-1 (3-3) [.500]
5. Leo/Scoob ---- 1-2 (4-5) [.444]
6. Fangirl ---- 0-3 (0-9) [.000]
7. Kfish ---- 0-4 (0-12) [.000]

😖hifty:

And it's a bit early to be looking ahead to such things, but in the final week of the round robin, Scoob/leo and Kandy/id face off. Here's hoping for an epic bout to determine a playoff spot.

Aw, sh!t.

🙁

lol

Odds on Scoob/leo not making the playoffs: 4/1. Place your wagers now.

..

In other news, I've been watching Transformers clips to get in the mood for my next match. I don't want to let Optimus Prime down.

If it's impossible for those at the bottom to make the play offs then why bother?

I think KFish is the only one mathematically eliminated. Realistically, you're done, but not technically.

There's certainly nothing forcing you to continue. Though it would be considered sporting courtesy to make all your opponents work for the win as much as your earlier opponents. Depending on how competitive you are, there's also the chance to avoid the ignominy of last place. There's also the experience you'd get from debating and respect from those who see you following through with it.

Or not, of course. It's your own choice, and won't be held against you (at least not by me).

Originally posted by DigiMark007
I think KFish is the only one mathematically eliminated. Realistically, you're done, but not technically.

There's certainly nothing forcing you to continue. Though it would be considered sporting courtesy to make all your opponents work for the win as much as your earlier opponents. Depending on how competitive you are, there's also the chance to avoid the ignominy of last place. There's also the experience you'd get from debating and respect from those who see you following through with it.

Or not, of course. It's your own choice, and won't be held against you (at least not by me).


What happens if I win the next three debates?

Originally posted by fangirl101
What happens if I win the next three debates?

Depends on the margin of victory, and also how the rest of the battles play out. The best you could do is 9-9, which is 500%. With 4 of 7 teams making the playoff, it's not inconceivable that 1 team at or below 500% will make the playoffs.

I'd have to do too many calculations to figure out what is the lowest vote total you could have to still get in. Just by my best guess, I'd say the 4th place team will have to be at least 8-10, and likely better. Because we could just as easily have you two stay where you are, and have 4 or 5 teams with winning records, which would mean that maybe even a 10-8 or 11-7 team could be left out.

So basically it's too early to say. Which is why I said you're realistically out, but not mathematically. KFish, with a potential best of 6-12 at this point, is certainly eliminated, though not for lack of a valiant effort in his matches.

Originally posted by DigiMark007
Depends on the margin of victory, and also how the rest of the battles play out. The best you could do is 9-9, which is 500%. With 4 of 7 teams making the playoff, it's not inconceivable that 1 team at or below 500% will make the playoffs.

I'd have to do too many calculations to figure out what is the lowest vote total you could have to still get in. Just by my best guess, I'd say the 4th place team will have to be at least 8-10, and likely better. Because we could just as easily have you two stay where you are, and have 4 or 5 teams with winning records, which would mean that maybe even a 10-8 or 11-7 team could be left out.

So basically it's too early to say. Which is why I said you're realistically out, but not mathematically. KFish, with a potential best of 6-12 at this point, is certainly eliminated, though not for lack of a valiant effort in his matches.


There was a match, were certain things were over looked. and that is the truth. And I'll leave it at that.

lol. And here I thought you were excited to give it a go in your remaining matches. Did you just want to complain more? Let it go. It's happened to all of us at some point.

Originally posted by DigiMark007
lol. And here I thought you were excited to give it a go in your remaining matches. Did you just want to complain more? Let it go. It's happened to all of us at some point.

Trust me. I'm going to give it a go. Next week's plan is awesome. I changed it all but kept it the same. sealed up all the lose ends that my freind said was there. And have 100 scans to back it up. Hell, I could actually go back and prove my previous loss now that I have the scans. But who cares. After this, I won't be doing this any more. I'm not a fan of politics.

Originally posted by DigiMark007
i'm lonely

🙁

😂

😐

Week 1: New York City
Duration: Monday, September 15th @ 10am thru Friday, September 19th @ 12am)[/b]
BDub/Smurph def. Leo/Scoob 2-1 - http://www.killermovies.com/forums/f77/t492944.html
Charlotte def. Kfish 3-0 - http://www.killermovies.com/forums/f77/t492942.html
Digi def. Fangirl 3-0 - http://www.killermovies.com/forums/f77/t492943.html

Bye: Kandy/id369

Judges: Badabing, Citizen V, Illadelph

Week 2: Kahndaq (DC)
Duration: Monday, September 22nd @ 10am thru Friday, September 26th @ 12am)

Charlotte def. Fangirl 3-0 [by submission] - http://www.killermovies.com/forums/f77/t493401.html
Kandi/id369 Vs. Scoob/Leo - Postponed; Rescheduled to Week 8
Digi def. Kfish 3-0 - http://www.killermovies.com/forums/showthread.php?s=&threadid=493403&from=thread&pagenumber=1#post11118084

Bye: BDub/Smurph

Judges: Jason, Citizen V, Newjak

Week 3: The Amazon Rain Forest
Duration: Monday, September 29th @ 10am thru Friday, October 3rd @ 12am)

Charlotte def BDub/Smurph 2-1 - http://www.killermovies.com/forums/f77/t493869.html
Scoob/Leo def. FanGirl 3-0 - http://www.killermovies.com/forums/f77/t493870.html
Kandy/id369 def. Kfish 3-0 - http://www.killermovies.com/forums/f77/t493871.html

Bye: Digi

Judges: Red, Symmetric Chaos, Darthgoober (*), Illadelph (#)

Week 4: The Australian Outback
Duration: Monday, October 6th @ 10am thru Friday, October 10th @ 12am)

Bdub/Smurph def. Kfish 3-0 - http://www.killermovies.com/forums/f77/t494345.html
Digi def. Scoob/Leo 3-0 - http://www.killermovies.com/forums/f77/t494346.html
Charlotte def. Kandy/id369 3-0 - http://www.killermovies.com/forums/f77/t494347.html

Bye: Fangirl

Judges: Jason, Badabing, Red

Week 5: The Savage Land (Marvel)
Duration: Monday, October 20th @ 12pm thru Friday, October 24th @ 12pm)

Bdub/Smurph def. Fangirl 3-0 - http://www.killermovies.com/forums/f77/t495375.html
Scoob/Leo def. Charlotte 3-0 - http://www.killermovies.com/forums/f77/t495377.html
Digi def. Kandi/id369 2-1 - http://www.killermovies.com/forums/f77/t495378.html

Bye: Kfish

Judges: Illadelph, Symmetric Chaos, Citizen V

Week 6: Metropolis (DC)
Duration: Monday, October 27th @ 10am thru Friday, October 31st @ 12am)

Charlotte Vs. Digi
Kandi/id369 vs. Fangirl
Scoob/Leo Vs. Kfish

Bye: BDub/Smurph

Judges: Badabing, Jason, Newjak

Week 7: Hyperbolic Time Capsule (Dragon Ball Z)
Duration: Monday, November 3rd @ 10am thru Friday, November 7th @ 12am)

Bdub/Smurph Vs. Kandi/id369
Fangirl Vs. Kfish

Bye: Charlotte, Digi, Scoob/Leo

Judges: TBD

Week 8: Washington D.C.
Duration: Monday, November 10th @ 10am thru Friday, November 14th @ 12am)

Bdub/Smurph vs. Digi
Kandi/id369 Vs. Scoob/Leo

Bye: Charlotte, Fangirl, Kfish

Judges: TBD

Standings:

1. Digi ---- 4-0 (11-1) [.917]
2. B-Dub/Smurph ---- 3-1 (9-3) [.750]
3. Charlotte ---- 4-1 (11-4) [.733]
4. Leo/Scoob ---- 2-2 (7-5) [.583]
5. Kandy/id369 ---- 1-2 (4-5) [.444]
7. Fangirl ---- 0-4 (0-12) [.000]
7. Kfish ---- 0-4 (0-12) [.000]

* = Clinched Playoff Berth

Current Judge Roster:

Badabing
Citizen V (C)
Darthgoober
Illadelph >Z<
Jason
Mr. Master
Newjak
Red
Symmetric Chaos
Xmarksthespot

bump.

I guess I will start with my team.
Kandi/Id - From what I understand, I get the feeling that we are looked at as the middle man. Meaning if you beat our team. Then you have a really good shot at taking the more favorable teams. Lose and you need to contemplate, on how to improve. If so, I can only blame myself. Since my drafts and initial tactics where somewhat linear. I don’t know if the overall idea has changed, now that I am making use of every character, and not just simply relying on a specific one to pull us through. Spawn seems to be the center of our attention, and the most abused. In the incoming matches, I will prove them right. Because magical growth is just as an important asset, as technological adaptation, and intelligence growth. Our aim, is for all our team members to have equal footing and be on the same page. I think we are getting closer to our goal.

Blair and Smurph
Tournament favorite that delivers. It seems that its focal point is drawn into Nimrod. I was surprised to hear, that they had lost their match with DeBel. However, the strategy was a vary ambitious one. But their victory over Leo/Scoob refortifies that they should not be under estimated. I like their debate strategy, some what similar to hours. Smurph goes off on the offensive aiming to just overwhelm the poor guy with a quote war. B-Dub backs him up, and reaffirms what their plan and strats are.

Charlotte DeBel
What can I say, she walked away with an easy victory over us. Her uses and combination of Miss Martian, and Emma has warranted only one loss. I have to say, on this forum (my ego/inner Id speaking here) I am only humbled by Exodus knowledge on how Psionic works. I am glad that there is another member, who understands the complexity of this power set, and its uses. Fear her use of the White Queen, and the Green Alien.

Scoob & Leo
I have to give it up for these guys. They are coming up with absolute zero winds, exploding gas…I wouldn’t be surprised if they tried to apply a silly string of death combo. Their recent victory over DeBel, marked the end of their loosing streak. Which is surprising to hear from another tournament favorite. They don’t have a character in their team, that I would say is their center point of attention. Maybe its because they like being the center of attention.

AlmightyKfish
New to the tourney. And still a bit rough around the edges. I would love to work on his team, because I believe that out of the new blood. Kfish has the most potential to ram through the vets team. And this can only be done, if he chooses his characters wisely. This man debates with the skill of a surgeon, and the rage of a butcher. In my match with Kfish their was a point when I doubted my prep. However, their is a point when skillful tactics begin to diminish, and Kfish then relies on slapstick replies to pull through. I want you to know, that you need to keep away from the slapstick replies. The changes are not subtle, and the vets will pick this up, and use it as a way of determining, that you are running out smart refutes.

fangirl101
The center of controversy. Another new blood, to this tourney. Here is the funny thing. While Kfish makes conservative drafts, fangirl is really hitting this tourney with less known characters, with over the top prep/strat. Balance Chica, its all about balance. Don’t try to do too much, which questions if you even have the time to do what you claim past the second post!?. Yet keep the tactics imaginative. You have the imaginative part down. I think you just relay on force feeding info too much too soon. Its counter productive, because VET’s will take every claim and attempt to refute it despite being within reason. It’s a huge burden, for one to defend every claim, before one starts to break down.

Digimark
The man, who racking up wins by a strangle hold. I believe Digi has bin wanting to make use of Minion for some time. And now is when, he sets free a caged animal. For sure he will make it to the play off’s. However, some teams have bin holding back and others are beginning to wise up. This can be seen with several times, now trying to make use every power set and the memory retention rule. I still spot a weakness, and its magic. Your team is tech savy, and its making use the Shazam power but I am not sure if its enough. All in all a solid team, with a daunting presentation to deliver its prep/strategy.

Keep it up guys, I will see you at the top - Id

Heh. Nice assessment. Generally agree, especially with the line about Scoob/leo vying for attention over their own team and each other. Spotlight whores.

313

The magic "weakness" is one that I'm aware of. I'll have an answer when I need one. And in the meantime, I have (I think) admirably countered the attempts to use it against me, first with the win over you and this week with my assured win ( uhuh ) over Charlotte.

Originally posted by DigiMark007
Heh. Nice assessment. Generally agree, especially with the line about Scoob/leo vying for attention over their own team and each other. Spotlight whores.

313

The magic "weakness" is one that I'm aware of. I'll have an answer when I need one. And in the meantime, I have (I think) admirably countered the attempts to use it against me, first with the win over you and this week with my assured win ( uhuh ) over Charlotte.

Well true, however the plan I had ATM was not the one I had in mind for you. For example, I wanted to take the Psy wars for Debel. And apply this weeks prep on you. This didn’t happen, because Kandy did not make the proper transaction when I asked him. So I thought of a plan, and waged just how Minion would Cope with Spawn...and I said hmm.. Ok what if its a team of Spawns.

Its a growing team, I feel good about our drafts.

Originally posted by id369
Well true, however the plan I had ATM was not the one I had in mind for you. For example, I wanted to take the Psy wars for Debel. And apply this weeks prep on you. This didn’t happen, because Kandy did not make the proper transaction when I asked him. So I thought of a plan, and waged just how Minion would Cope with Spawn...and I said hmm.. Ok what if its a team of Spawns.

Its a growing team, I feel good about our drafts.

Your Team is most excellent. I had to really think hard about my characters and stretch them much farther into my memory of thier abilities in order to cope with ridiculous powered Spawn, Gambit, and Cable.

I don't know jack about Spawn, so it was a hard match for me. Everyone else I could anticipate and react to a bit better. Now I'm at least familiar with him, so it won't be as hard if you make the playoffs, but between my inexperience with him, the ruling that went against me, and me misinterpreting the one psi-blocker scan, it just wasn't a good week for me. Easily my worst showing. I'm happy to have come out with the win, even if it broke my judging whitewash in the tourney.

Originally posted by DigiMark007
I don't know jack about Spawn, so it was a hard match for me. Everyone else I could anticipate and react to a bit better. Now I'm at least familiar with him, so it won't be as hard if you make the playoffs, but between my inexperience with him, the ruling that went against me, and me misinterpreting the one psi-blocker scan, it just wasn't a good week for me. Easily my worst showing. I'm happy to have come out with the win, even if it broke my judging whitewash in the tourney.

I'd advise on getting some spawn books if they make it into the tourney. You have no idea the shit even the weaker Spawns can pull out of thier asses. I'd been preparing for Spawn for some time. Which is why I switched in a certain Character for Firestar. Whom I liked much better.