The awareness and buzz is there:
"Friday Morning Update: Suicide Squad released its latest trailer during the MTV Music Awards this past Sunday where it took Twitter by storm, securing 231,473 tweets on Monday – sixth largest trailer debut of all time (it also owns the third largest). In addition, its positive to negative ratio of 11 to 1 was almost three times that if its last trailer (4 to 1) which is a strong sign that the campaign and indeed film is winning over fans. Generally latter trailers for event films such as this wane significantly in buzz as time goes on once the cat is out the bag and awareness is established. When that doesn’t happen and buzz levels remain the same or grow its generally a very good sign for the demand for the film (Deadpool comes to mind as another event film that was able to do this). Fans might be a bit weary of big ensemble films after the critical failure of Dawn Of Justice but if this can go the extra mile and secure some critical praise before release it might surprise us all"
I'll post the long range forcast again.
Suicide Squad (Warner Bros.)PROS:
– A strong recognizable cast top-lined by Will Smith who is about as experienced as it gets for summer blockbuster hits.
– Social media has been electric for the release, both Twitter and Facebook. It has been in the top 10 weekly Twitter charts every week of 2016 so far and is one of only two films (the other being Avengers: Age Of Ultron) to see two separate trailers generate over 200,000 tweets in a single day.
– Sequels have had trouble at times this summer living up to previous expectations. Suicide Squad is a net new film property which, though based off of popular comic characters, is a very different type of superhero film. Walking partially in the tracks started by Deadpool it focuses on anti-heroes and villains which should prove to be a refreshing deviation from the numerous comic adaptations that have come before it.
– Arguably the most famous villain ever is The Joker, and this film will mark his first return to the screen since the late Heath Ledger’s Oscar-winning performance in The Dark Knight. Jared Leto’s performance is already drawing a lot of attention to the film in and of itself and is yet another reason for its huge social media footprint.
CONS:
– Aside from The Joker and arguably Harley Quinn, many of the characters in the film are not household names which could limit its overall reach.
– The fact that the film pushed for a PG-13 rating could work against Warner Bros. in the long run, since this will severely limit the type of carnage and gruesome acts that can be portrayed. This effectively pulled out much of the teeth the film could potentially have had, especially in light of how effective Deadpool was at offering an adult comic adaptation without sacrificing box office revenue.
Prediction: 98 million opening weekend
If Suicide Squad gets anything less than 80 million opening weekend, this summer has been a true disappointment.