General Primary Discussion Thread

Started by Bardock42212 pages

Originally posted by snowdragon
Yes but the question Surtur asked was focused on illegal immigrants not legal ones.

Most studies have shown first generation immigrants cost more then they generate.

Illegal immigrants are a huge cost and burden to the USA. Let's not confuse talking points by showing what legal immigrants provide/do.

My link is focussed on "illegal immigrants".

Can you show some of the studies that show that first generation immigrants or illegal immigrants cost the USA more than they generate?

Originally posted by snowdragon
Yes but the question Surtur asked was focused on illegal immigrants not legal ones.

Question, what do you think causes a cost difference? It's a new person of similar background either way.

Is it just the cost of considering them not-a-resident?

If one is arguing the difference is whether they're legal or not, then making them legal seems like the best solution.

Most studies have shown first generation immigrants cost more then they generate.

That's not what I've seen indicated. The Mariel boatlift, for example, was followed by good economic times for Miami, even though it was suddenly increasing the number of people to a single city by a very large number in a short time-a 7% rise in the labor pool.


Illegal immigrants are a huge cost and burden to the USA. Let's not confuse talking points by showing what legal immigrants provide/do.

This is highly disputed. Areas in recent times that have had anti-immigrant laws often feel an economic pinch in result. The boatlift, as mention, didn't hurt Miami's economy and you'll not find an example of more people rushing over so suddenly to a single place. Undocumented immigrants pay taxes and contribute to the local economies.

And again, if it's just the illegal part which is the problem, why not... just make them legal?

On what's coming-

Right now, demographics are the big thing in the upcoming races. Hillary doesn't have much reason to panic if Sanders wins New Hampshire- which he will, solidly- because it favors him and he's from the next state over. She'll try and shrink that win, but it's a Sanders state.

The state to watch out for is Nevada. If Sanders can contest there, then Hillary is in trouble and has major reason to worry. If he doesn't win, though, then she has less reason to worry.

New poll shows Bernie is almost tied with Hillary nationally: http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/268362-sanders-tied-with-clinton-nationwide-poll

Originally posted by Bardock42
http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/2015/04/16/Study-Finds-Illegal-Immigrants-Pay-118B-Taxes

Of course it would be even better to extend a legal status to them and ensure that they pay even more than they already do.

On the whole immigration, and illegal immigration in particular, has a huge beneficial influence on the US, besides the paying of taxes, illegal immigrants taking very low paid jobs that no Americans want to do ensure the cheap availability of many goods for many Americans.

So if they are paying taxes that means the government knows exactly where a bunch of illegals are and is doing nothing about it?

Originally posted by Surtur
So if they are paying taxes that means the government knows exactly where a bunch of illegals are and is doing nothing about it?

Nope. You are not very well informed about things, are you?

Neither are you, you don't have the slightest clue about America or what goes on here as you don't even live here. Worry about your own failing country.

Originally posted by Time-Immemorial
Neither are you, you don't have the slightest clue about America or what goes on here as you don't even live here. Worry about your own failing country.

This is the kindest endorsement I could have asked for...you're making me blush.

You have no clue about America. Quit acting like you do.

Do you have a mortage here, or a mortage in general.

Do you have a job here? Do you pay taxes here, do you vote here?

No you don't so you have literally no clue about anything other then what the bias media tells you.

You make a point...not a good one, of course...but a point.

Originally posted by Bardock42
Nope. You are not very well informed about things, are you?

I think you misunderstood then. When I say pay taxes, I am talking about taxes from a job, from working. When you file returns like that, doesn't the government know exactly where and when you are working?

This is highly disputed. Areas in recent times that have had anti-immigrant laws often feel an economic pinch in result. The boatlift, as mention, didn't hurt Miami's economy and you'll not find an example of more people rushing over so suddenly to a single place. Undocumented immigrants pay taxes and contribute to the local economies.

And again, if it's just the illegal part which is the problem, why not... just make them legal?

There is no doubt that add to economies, thats also why its funny that Trump says he'll kick them out but on his website he never discusses throwing out all the illegal immigrants.

This study is one of the first to estimate the total impact of illegal immigration on the federal budget. Most previous studies have focused on the state and local level and have examined only costs or tax payments, but not both. Based on Census Bureau data, this study finds that, when all taxes paid (direct and indirect) and all costs are considered, illegal households created a net fiscal deficit at the federal level of more than $10 billion in 2002. We also estimate that, if there was an amnesty for illegal aliens, the net fiscal deficit would grow to nearly $29 billion.

Among the findings:

Households headed by illegal aliens imposed more than $26.3 billion in costs on the federal government in 2002 and paid only $16 billion in taxes, creating a net fiscal deficit of almost $10.4 billion, or $2,700 per illegal household.

Among the largest costs are Medicaid ($2.5 billion); treatment for the uninsured ($2.2 billion); food assistance programs such as food stamps, WIC, and free school lunches ($1.9 billion); the federal prison and court systems ($1.6 billion); and federal aid to schools ($1.4 billion).

With nearly two-thirds of illegal aliens lacking a high school degree, the primary reason they create a fiscal deficit is their low education levels and resulting low incomes and tax payments, not their legal status or heavy use of most social services.

On average, the costs that illegal households impose on federal coffers are less than half that of other households, but their tax payments are only one-fourth that of other households.

Many of the costs associated with illegals are due to their American-born children, who are awarded U.S. citizenship at birth. Thus, greater efforts at barring illegals from federal programs will not reduce costs because their citizen children can continue to access them.

If illegal aliens were given amnesty and began to pay taxes and use services like households headed by legal immigrants with the same education levels, the estimated annual net fiscal deficit would increase from $2,700 per household to nearly $7,700, for a total net cost of $29 billion.

Costs increase dramatically because unskilled immigrants with legal status -- what most illegal aliens would become -- can access government programs, but still tend to make very modest tax payments.

Although legalization would increase average tax payments by 77 percent, average costs would rise by 118 percent.

The fact that legal immigrants with few years of schooling are a large fiscal drain does not mean that legal immigrants overall are a net drain -- many legal immigrants are highly skilled.

The vast majority of illegals hold jobs. Thus the fiscal deficit they create for the federal government is not the result of an unwillingness to work.

The results of this study are consistent with a 1997 study by the National Research Council, which also found that immigrants' education level is a key determinant of their fiscal impact.

http://www.cis.org/articles/2004/fiscalexec.html

I am having a tough time finding the specific study that showed that change in cost/benefits of illegal immigrants essentially vs their children. It showed there was a net cost for first generation HOWEVER the children and beyond did well enough that they nearly negated the cost of their parents by the time they were 45 or so and were a net positive.

Yeah just have to pull a wiki:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second-generation_immigrants_in_the_United_States

Which generally supports my statement above. Mostly in part they become better educated and their earnings go up and contribute to federal taxes as well.

Originally posted by Q99
On what's coming-

Right now, demographics are the big thing in the upcoming races. Hillary doesn't have much reason to panic if Sanders wins New Hampshire- which he will, solidly- because it favors him and he's from the next state over. She'll try and shrink that win, but it's a Sanders state.

The state to watch out for is Nevada. If Sanders can contest there, then Hillary is in trouble and has major reason to worry. If he doesn't win, though, then she has less reason to worry.

Clinton leading Sanders among national Democratic primary voters, 44% to 42%.

This was an interesting article:

General election matchups among American voters show:

Clinton tops Trump 46 - 41 percent;
Clinton ties Cruz 45 - 45 percent;
Clinton trails Rubio 48 - 41 percent;
Sanders thumps Trump 49 - 39 percent;
Sanders edges Cruz 46 - 42 percent;
Sanders and Rubio are tied 43 - 43 percent. If Bloomberg runs as a third party candidate in some contests, results are:
Sanders at 35 percent, with Trump at 36 percent and Bloomberg at 15 percent;
Sanders at 37 percent, with Cruz at 36 percent and Bloomberg at 15 percent.

Sanders has a 44 - 35 percent favorability rating among American voters. Ratings for other candidates are:

Negative 39 - 56 percent for Clinton;
Negative 34 - 59 percent for Trump;
Negative 36 - 42 percent for Cruz;
Positive 42 - 28 percent for Rubio;
Negative 20 - 25 percent for Bloomberg with 53 percent who don't know enough about him to form an opinion.

"While Trump, Clinton and Cruz wallow in a negative favorability swamp, by comparison, Rubio and Sanders are rock stars," Malloy said.

From February 2 - 4, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,125 registered voters nationwide with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The survey includes 507 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 4.4 percentage points and 484 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2321

Ok, I'm going to say this before New Hampshire, to head off the overreactions that'll occur-

The media is really going to push what's happening as a horse-race (which they always do), Bernie's winning New Hampshire (which he *will* do, quite decisively, IMO), will be presented as having caught up to Hillary overall, then they'll look to Nevada and South Carolina, look for any poll to suggest the lead is shrinking, those primaries come and the *expected* outcome is Hillary wins and the momentum reverses. That's the course I'm calling, and I will consider it news if things go off that course.

This is the narrative I've been saying for months. This is what FiveThirtyEight said back in July- and I tend to go with them (Time likes to say I 'always defend Hillary,' and acts like I'll be shocked when Bernie does well, but he really doesn't pay attention to what I'm actually saying ^^ And I think in practice he'd hate Bernie winning more in the end...).

The point where Bernie can prove he's broken expectations is Nevada, not New Hampshire. If you want to call if things are really going to be different, keep your eyes fixed on Nevada Bernie fans, and root for him there. Iowa was the close call, New Hampshire is the gimmie, Nevada and South Carolina are the ones where people are saying he *should* lose and he has a chance to prove them wrong.

And anyone in the media who acts like the race is going wildly back and forth isn't paying attention ^^ Again, we seem to, so far, be running on a course predicted last July.

Originally posted by Q99
Ok, I'm going to say this before New Hampshire, to head off the overreactions that'll occur-

The media is really going to push what's happening as a horse-race (which they always do), Bernie's winning New Hampshire (which he *will* do, quite decisively, IMO), will be presented as having caught up to Hillary overall, then they'll look to Nevada and South Carolina, look for any poll to suggest the lead is shrinking, those primaries come and the *expected* outcome is Hillary wins and the momentum reverses. That's the course I'm calling, and I will consider it news if things go off that course.

This is the narrative I've been saying for months. This is what FiveThirtyEight said back in July- and I tend to go with them (Time likes to say I 'always defend Hillary,' and acts like I'll be shocked when Bernie does well, but he really doesn't pay attention to what I'm actually saying ^^ And I think in practice he'd hate Bernie winning more in the end...).

The point where Bernie can prove he's broken expectations is Nevada, not New Hampshire. If you want to call if things are really going to be different, keep your eyes fixed on Nevada Bernie fans, and root for him there. Iowa was the close call, New Hampshire is the gimmie, Nevada and South Carolina are the ones where people are saying he *should* lose and he has a chance to prove them wrong.

And anyone in the media who acts like the race is going wildly back and forth isn't paying attention ^^ Again, we seem to, so far, be running on a course predicted last July.

Sanders has made considerable gains since July 2015 on the National level though. More than doubling his support in even the least favourable recent polls. It also seems like he has also tripled his support among non-whites, and Clinton has been loosing some support.

So I don't quite think this is the course that has been charted by FiveThirtyEight then, rather this is more impressive than expected, though of course that doesn't mean he'll necessarily win, he's still behind, though not nearly as much as he used to be.

Originally posted by Bardock42
Sanders has made considerable gains since July 2015 on the National level though. More than doubling his support in even the least favourable recent polls. It also seems like he has also tripled his support among non-whites, and Clinton has been loosing some support.

Yep, and the July article? Predicted he'd do about that well. The Iowa tie was a bit below what they expected, they were judging a win.


So I don't quite think this is the course that has been charted by FiveThirtyEight then, rather this is more impressive than expected, though of course that doesn't mean he'll necessarily win, he's still behind, though not nearly as much as he used to be.

This really is exactly what 538 was calling all along, though, they expected him to catch up this much. Other places started out underestimating Bernie, then flipping around, but this is very much in line with what they were guessing because they weren't going based on at-the-time poll numbers, but looking to whom he was appealing to.

"Otherwise, just as was the case throughout the 2008 campaign, the media will misconstrue voting patterns that occur because of demographics and attribute them to “momentum” instead."

Now, Hillary does definitely want to limit Bernie's NH win as much as possible, and Bernie to expand it, but to see the pattern break in Bernie's favor, we need to wait til a later state. Those are the ones that'll show if he can pull off an upset, because those are the ones that aren't part of the predicted pattern.

Oh yea, not in that article, but 538 does regularly mention not getting caught up in national polls, since there is no national primary vote, just state ones.

Uhhh...brb

The July article predicted he would do that well in Iowa and maybe New Hampshire, it did not predict anything else about his surge, in fact it did use a National Poll to point out his lack of appeal:

"Nationally, by contrast, Sanders has just 15 percent of the vote and has been gaining ground on Clinton only slowly."

I'm not sure if FiveThirtyEight predicted the latest standings (national, state, or minority votes) in other articles, maybe they did, but this article didn't really.

I do agree that we'll have to see the later states, but the polling already seems much better than it used to and almost anyone predicted.

Originally posted by Bardock42
The July article predicted he would do that well in Iowa and maybe New Hampshire, it did not predict anything else about his surge, in fact it did use a National Poll to point out his lack of appeal:

Personally I'd characterize it more as a steady advance- RCP graph (zoom out so you can see July-to-now).

Anyway, he'd have to improve about this much in the nationals by January to have won Iowa, I think. He didn't beat their prediction in Iowa.

[b]
I'm not sure if FiveThirtyEight predicted the latest standings (national, state, or minority votes) in other articles, maybe they did, but this article didn't really.

It talked about demographics in that article, a fair amount, as the main point of the article, and that's the crux.

As far as I know, his Iowa results mirror what they said, with still a low performance among non-white voters. Note how Hillary claimed victory early, and one of the main reasons she did that was because one of the major remaining places was Des Moines, the part of the state with some of the most non-white voters- If she'd been underperforming among them, then her judgement may really have turned out wrong.

Rick Santorum's endorsement of Rubio was so weak Jeb Bush is using it in an anti-Rubio ad

That's what's known as 'being a liability.'