US Midterms 2018

Originally posted by BackFire
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-base-isnt-enough/

Really good article about the mid terms. Goes into the turnout (it was incredibly high for a midterm election), what it may or may not mean for 2020, and also how Trump's base alone won't be enough to win him reelection in 2020.

Key takeaways:

-Democrats won independents this year by 12 points, and voters who voted for a thirdy party candidate in 2016 went to democrats by 13 points.

-There are more democrats than republicans in this country, charts show how that number has shifted throughout the years, and it does so by a few percentage points regularly. Currently dems have a +4 advantage. Also the number of independents has been rising steadily over the last 20 years or so. If that trend continues independents will outnumber republicans at some point over the next 4 or 5 years.

-Apparently in 2012 Obama won reelection despite losing independents by 5 points, which surprised me. I was under the impression that all winning presidents ended up winning independents. Obama was able to do this by appealing to the democratic base that doesn't regularly turnout for elections, and actually getting them to turn out to vote for him, offsetting Romney's independent advantage. This goes into the previous point, only being possible because there are more democrats than republicans in the country. Trump won't have this luxury because his base is too small, and so he will have to rely on those independent voters who currently seem to be turning against him.

-Usually after suffering a mid term defeat, as Trump did, the presidents who go on to survive and win a second term acknowledge that and begin making more moderate overtures and adjustments. Trump, at least in the two weeks since the mid terms, has not done that, and he will likely have to.

Thanks for summarizing. And, nice about the Independents. Maybe I will get my wish and we have a true three party system.

Originally posted by Robtard
Some can't accept this happened:

I'm not sure if you are just being obstinate or gloating but the money spent on this election just like all others proves we have a large problem with our govt.

The fact that these individuals make what 150k a year but can pull that much cash shows a failure in our govt.

That wave needs to be green and anyone celebrating should be concerned that so much money decides elections.

Originally posted by Flyattractor
[b]And Tales of DNC Voter Fraud seem to be popping up all over the place as well. [/B]

Originally posted by quanchi112
Proof is required not silly conspiracies you loser.

....And Here We Go!

9 Charged wth Election Fraud. Buying off Homless with ciggerettes and cash..

Originally posted by Flyattractor
[b]....And Here We Go!

9 Charged wth Election Fraud. Buying off Homless with ciggerettes and cash.. [/B]

Originally posted by Flyattractor
[b]....And Here We Go!

9 Charged wth Election Fraud. Buying off Homless with ciggerettes and cash.. [/B]

Since technically what constitutes a wave is subjective...any numbers people try to come back with are utterly irrelevant, thus they can never ever prove(with facts) there was a blue wave. Cuz *my* idea of a wave is them taking both the house and the senate. That's the best part, they can hoot and holler and get triggered all they want(and this post will trigger someone, I suspect I'll get a response within a few minutes of posting this) but it won't change a damn thing 🙂

It makes me smile cuz there is not a god damn thing they can do to change that and I know it'll grind their gears.

It's not like Jerry Brown of California recently pardoned a former state senator convicted of felony voter fraud though. Good thing right?

Ha, totally didn't just happen!

Originally posted by Surtur
Since technically what constitutes a wave is subjective...any numbers people try to come back with are utterly irrelevant, thus they can never ever prove(with facts) there was a blue wave. Cuz *my* idea of a wave is them taking both the house and the senate. That's the best part, they can hoot and holler and get triggered all they want(and this post will trigger someone, I suspect I'll get a response within a few minutes of posting this) but it won't change a damn thing 🙂

It makes me smile cuz there is not a god damn thing they can do to change that and I know it'll grind their gears.

Just loving how there is no blue wave and not a damn thing folk can do. Love it.

What I'm hoping? Is for people to pout some more over it 🙂

Originally posted by Surtur
Just loving how there is no blue wave and not a damn thing folk can do. Love it.

What I'm hoping? Is for people to pout some more over it 🙂

Originally posted by quanchi112
Killed in the House. It was a shellacking. Trump fumed over the losses. Dems took no prisoners.

Surtur types are still coping over this happening:

Even if the Dems also took the Senate (which was never expected in 2018, maybe 2020 though), he'd still be crying that Trump and Trumpers won somehow, like Trump has done with his "I thought it was very close to a complete victory." claim.

You can tell it is how the delusional mind works when coping with reality when his side lost so badly.

Funny thing, Democrats crushing Republicans in the House means the ACA (aka Obamacare) isn't going to be picked apart further after January. So he gets to keep his free-to-him medical insurance thanks to every person who voted Democrat this election. He owes us a big "Thank you!".

Seems the Dem gains in California are greater than any previous Midterm for either party.

It's like you're taking my own salt and rubbing it into my wound repeatedly

decent baiting/trolling

Originally posted by Emperordmb
It's like you're taking my own salt and rubbing it into my wound repeatedly

decent baiting/trolling

There is only one house race left to call, and it is very slightly leaning Dem right now. If the dem ends up winning that will be a total of 40 pick ups for the dems this year.

Originally posted by BackFire
There is only one house race left to call, and it is very slightly leaning Dem right now. If the dem ends up winning that will be a total of 40 pick ups for the dems this year.

39 or 40 seats, it doesn't matter at this point, objectively that is a Blue Wave any way you slice it:

40 has a nice ring to it, though.

Oh for sure, especially since they were already sweating profusely the day after when it was expected that the Dems would pick up low 30's seat gains. It's only one point now, but turning that "3x" into a "4x" will induce even greater fits of coping. 'I don't care how many seats were gained, it's not a Blue Wave, because my feelings!!!1!

Originally posted by BackFire
40 has a nice ring to it, though.

also will mean i was half-right to predict a tsunami, since the conditions for a wave were 25 gained